AuburnTigers
2-0 T2nd (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.8%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Auburn's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
Auburn has a 0.8% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Auburn's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W17-16 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W43-8 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:52% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:80% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:30% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:11% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:31% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:37% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:94% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:17% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.3% | 87.4% |
| 7-2 | 2.1% | 26.4% |
| 6-3 | 9.2% | 0.4% |
| 5-4 | 22.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 30.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 24.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 9.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 0.8% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.2%) | ||
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (+0.1%) | 0.8% (-0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (-0.7%) | 1.5% (+0.6%) | ||
| 0.8% (-0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.1%) | ||
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
87.3%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
95.8%
<0.1%
94.1%
<0.1%
92.2%
<0.1%
92.1%
<0.1%
89.9%
<0.1%
89.2%
<0.1%
88.6%
<0.1%
82.0%
<0.1%
60.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
26.5%
1.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%50.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%43.0%
<0.1%42.2%
<0.1%40.6%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%30.9%
<0.1%29.1%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%27.4%
0.1%25.8%
<0.1%24.4%
0.1%23.0%
0.2%20.6%
0.4%20.0%
0.1%17.0%
0.2%Any 3 losses
2.5%
2.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%41.3%
<0.1%36.2%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%27.4%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%12.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
0.2%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
<0.1%0.5%
0.3%Any 4 losses
0.8%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17