AuburnTigers
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Auburn's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
Auburn has a 2.7% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Auburn's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:88% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:52% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:37% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:18% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:37% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:35% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:27% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.5% | 97.0% |
| 7-2 | 3.2% | 53.7% |
| 6-3 | 11.0% | 4.1% |
| 5-4 | 22.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 28.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 21.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 10.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
96.6%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
58.4%
1.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%53.1%
0.2%52.2%
<0.1%51.9%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.1%45.0%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%36.1%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
15.2%
6.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%55.9%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.9%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.3%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%45.1%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
0.2%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
0.4%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
0.4%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
0.4%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.2%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%0.8%
0.2%Any 4 losses
7.6%
3.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
0.2%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26