Missouri

MissouriTigers

2-0 T2nd (0-0) in SEC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.4%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Missouri's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?

Missouri has a 0.4% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Missouri's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

MissouriSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/03
vsArkansas-Pine BluffUAPB
W54-14
29/11
@KansasKU
W38-21
39/19
vsTroyTROY
Win prob:98%
49/26
@Mississippi StMSST
Win prob:42%
510/03
vsFloridaFLA
Win prob:45%
610/10
vsTexas A&MTA&M
Win prob:25%
710/17
@MississippiMISS
Win prob:32%
910/31
@ArkansasARK
Win prob:83%
1011/07
vsTexasTEX
Win prob:10%
1111/14
@GeorgiaUGA
Win prob:8%
1211/21
vsKentuckyUK
Win prob:81%
1311/28
vsOklahomaOU
Win prob:40%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

MissouriRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0%
100.0%
8-1
0.1%
87.6%
7-2
1.1%
24.7%
6-3
6.1%
0.3%
5-4
17.6%
0%
4-5
29.6%
0%
3-6
28.1%
0%
2-7
14.1%
0%
1-8
3.1%
0%
0-9
0.3%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Missouri CCG Opponents

if Missouri makes the CCG

TEXTexas
39.5%
UGAGeorgia
31.6%
ALAAlabama
13.2%
LSULSU
7.9%
TA&MTexas A&M
5.3%
TENNTennessee
2.6%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

MissouriThis Week's Impact

Game
MissouriCCG OddsAway Wins
MissouriCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
GeorgiaUGA@ArkansasARK
0.4%
(+0.0%)		0.5%
(+0.2%)
NC StateNCSU@VanderbiltVAN
0.4%
(-0.0%)		0.4%
(+0.0%)
Florida StFSU@AlabamaALA
0.4%
(+0.0%)		0.4%
(+0.0%)
KentuckyUK@Texas A&MTA&M
0.4%
(+0.0%)		0.4%
(+0.0%)
Mississippi StMSST@South CarolinaSC
0.4%
(+0.0%)		0.4%
(-0.0%)
FloridaFLA@AuburnAUB
0.4%
(+0.0%)		0.4%
(-0.0%)
TroyTROY@MissouriMIZ
0.4%
(-0.0%)		0.4%
(+0.0%)
LSULSU@MississippiMISS
0.3%
(-0.1%)		0.5%
(+0.1%)
New MexicoUNM@OklahomaOU
0.4%
(-0.0%)		0.4%
(+0.0%)
KennesawKENN@TennesseeTENN
0.4%
(-0.0%)		0.4%
(+0.0%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@TexasTEX
0.4%
(+0.0%)		0.4%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

MissouriLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Missouri CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
87.4%
<0.1%
Troy
100.0%
<0.1%
Mississippi
96.9%
<0.1%
Oklahoma
95.9%
<0.1%
Florida
93.9%
<0.1%
Texas A&M
93.7%
<0.1%
Mississippi St
92.1%
<0.1%
Kentucky
88.9%
<0.1%
Texas
86.1%
<0.1%
Georgia
84.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas
50.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
24.9%
1.1%
OklahomaTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas A&MTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
GeorgiaTroy
76.9%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippi St
72.7%
<0.1%
TexasTroy
66.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasOklahoma
66.7%
<0.1%
KentuckyOklahoma
62.5%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippi
58.8%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippi St
58.5%
<0.1%
KentuckyTexas A&M
57.1%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippi
55.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippi St
53.8%
<0.1%
Mississippi StOklahoma
53.7%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippi
52.6%
<0.1%
FloridaOklahoma
51.9%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi St
51.1%
<0.1%
FloridaKentucky
50.0%
<0.1%
MississippiOklahoma
49.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyTexas
39.7%
<0.1%
GeorgiaKentucky
35.9%
<0.1%
Mississippi StTexas A&M
34.3%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMississippi St
34.2%
<0.1%
FloridaGeorgia
33.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasFlorida
33.3%
<0.1%
MississippiTexas
32.8%
<0.1%
OklahomaTexas A&M
32.1%
<0.1%
MississippiTexas A&M
31.7%
<0.1%
OklahomaTexas
31.5%
<0.1%
GeorgiaOklahoma
31.1%
<0.1%
FloridaTexas
30.6%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMississippi
30.5%
<0.1%
Mississippi StTexas
30.5%
<0.1%
ArkansasTexas A&M
26.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasGeorgia
26.6%
<0.1%
ArkansasTexas
25.5%
<0.1%
FloridaTexas A&M
24.3%
<0.1%
GeorgiaTexas A&M
19.3%
0.1%
TexasTexas A&M
18.0%
<0.1%
GeorgiaTexas
12.6%
0.3%
Any 3 losses
0.9%
0.8%
FloridaMississippi StTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaOklahomaTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasKentuckyTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
Mississippi StOklahomaTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
Mississippi StTexasTroy
75.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyTexasTroy
50.0%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi StTroy
50.0%
<0.1%
MississippiTexasTroy
36.4%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMississippiTroy
33.3%
<0.1%
FloridaTexasTroy
33.3%
<0.1%
MississippiTexas A&MTroy
28.6%
<0.1%
OklahomaTexasTroy
27.3%
<0.1%
FloridaGeorgiaTroy
22.2%
<0.1%
GeorgiaOklahomaTroy
21.4%
<0.1%
TexasTexas A&MTroy
18.5%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMississippi StTroy
18.2%
<0.1%
GeorgiaTexas A&MTroy
12.0%
<0.1%
GeorgiaTexasTroy
11.6%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippiMississippi St
9.5%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippi StOklahoma
7.1%
<0.1%
ArkansasFloridaMississippi
6.3%
<0.1%
FloridaKentuckyTexas A&M
3.1%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippi StTexas A&M
2.4%
<0.1%
KentuckyOklahomaTexas A&M
2.4%
<0.1%
FloridaGeorgiaKentucky
1.9%
<0.1%
ArkansasGeorgiaOklahoma
1.8%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiMississippi St
1.5%
<0.1%
GeorgiaKentuckyOklahoma
1.5%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippiTexas
1.4%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippi StTexas
1.3%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi StTexas
1.2%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippi StTexas
1.1%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippi StTexas
1.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiTexas
0.9%
<0.1%
GeorgiaKentuckyMississippi St
0.9%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiOklahoma
0.8%
<0.1%
FloridaOklahomaTexas
0.8%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi StOklahoma
0.8%
<0.1%
FloridaGeorgiaMississippi St
0.7%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMississippi StOklahoma
0.6%
<0.1%
GeorgiaKentuckyMississippi
0.6%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMississippiOklahoma
0.6%
0.1%
FloridaOklahomaTexas A&M
0.6%
<0.1%
FloridaGeorgiaOklahoma
0.6%
<0.1%
Mississippi StTexasTexas A&M
0.6%
0.1%
Any 4 losses
0.5%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippiOklahomaTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippi StTexasTroy
33.3%
<0.1%
GeorgiaKentuckyMississippiTroy
12.5%
<0.1%
Mississippi StOklahomaTexasTroy
8.3%
<0.1%
FloridaGeorgiaMississippi StTroy
6.7%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMississippiTexasTroy
0.5%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

MissouriCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com