MissouriTigers
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Missouri's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
Missouri has a 2.9% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Missouri's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/03 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/11 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:38% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:35% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:62% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:24% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:19% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:43% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.5% | 97.8% |
| 7-2 | 3.3% | 55.1% |
| 6-3 | 11.2% | 4.3% |
| 5-4 | 22.5% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 27.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 21.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 10.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.1%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
61.7%
2.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.1%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.4%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%58.2%
0.1%56.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.4%
0.1%53.6%
0.1%49.6%
0.1%47.1%
<0.1%34.5%
0.3%33.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
13.6%
7.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%46.5%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%34.8%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.3%
0.3%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
0.2%4.9%
0.1%4.4%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.3%
0.5%3.1%
0.1%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
0.4%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.5%2.3%
0.3%1.9%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%Any 4 losses
7.2%
3.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.3%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26