Alabama

AlabamaCrimson Tide

6-2 T3rd (4-2) in SEC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

29.0%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Alabama's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?

Alabama has a 29.0% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Alabama's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Alabama need to do to reach the SEC Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Alabama's SEC Championship Game odds at 74.8%; even one more loss drops that to 7.4%.

What is the biggest game this week for Alabama's SEC Championship Game odds?

Alabama's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating LSU would put its SEC Championship Game odds at 67.9%, while a loss would drop them to 1.8%.

AlabamaSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsEast CarolinaECU
W48-10
29/12
@KentuckyUK
W45-17
39/19
vsFlorida StFSU
W50-36
49/26
vsSouth CarolinaSC
W49-18
510/03
@Mississippi StMSST
W56-23
610/10
vsGeorgiaUGA
L17-20
710/17
@TennesseeTENN
L10-26
810/24
vsTexas A&MTA&M
W31-20
1011/07
@LSULSU
Win prob:41%
1111/14
@VanderbiltVAN
Win prob:97%
1211/21
vsChattanoogaUTC
Win prob:90%
1311/28
vsAuburnAUB
Win prob:93%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

AlabamaRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
7-2
36.9%
74.8%
6-3
56.9%
2.5%
5-4
6.1%
0%
4-5
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Alabama CCG Opponents

if Alabama makes the CCG

UGAGeorgia
60.5%
MISSMississippi
21.2%
UKKentucky
11.5%
TEXTexas
2.6%
TENNTennessee
1.1%
LSULSU
1.1%
MIZMissouri
0.9%
FLAFlorida
0.6%
SCSouth Carolina
0.4%
OUOklahoma
0.1%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

AlabamaThis Week's Impact

Game
AlabamaCCG OddsAway Wins
AlabamaCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Nov 7
TexasTEX@MissouriMIZ
27.9%
(-1.1%)		32.1%
(+3.1%)
ArkansasARK@AuburnAUB
26.6%
(-2.4%)		29.5%
(+0.5%)
Texas A&MTA&M@South CarolinaSC
28.7%
(-0.3%)		29.3%
(+0.3%)
AlabamaALA@LSULSU
67.9%
(+38.9%)		1.8%
(-27.2%)
VanderbiltVAN@Mississippi StMSST
28.6%
(-0.4%)		29.1%
(+0.1%)
KentuckyUK@TennesseeTENN
24.7%
(-4.4%)		30.9%
(+1.9%)
GeorgiaUGA@MississippiMISS
28.6%
(-0.5%)		29.6%
(+0.6%)
OklahomaOU@FloridaFLA
29.1%
(+0.1%)		29.0%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Alabama

Mississippi StMississippi StateMississippiOle MissTennesseeTennesseeFloridaFloridaAuburnAuburnAlabamaAlabamaMissouriMissouriSouth CarolinaSouth Carolina

CCG: 82.7% • Scenario: 0.9%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Alabama

AlabamaAlabama

CCG: 67.8% • Scenario: 41.1%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

AlabamaLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Alabama CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
74.8%
33.2%
Any 1 loss
7.4%
54.9%
Chattanooga
74.7%
3.7%
Auburn
8.6%
2.6%
Vanderbilt
8.1%
1.2%
LSU
2.1%
47.5%
Any 2 losses
2.5%
5.7%
AuburnChattanooga
9.0%
0.3%
ChattanoogaVanderbilt
7.0%
0.1%
ChattanoogaLSU
2.0%
5.3%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

AlabamaCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com