AlabamaCrimson Tide
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Alabama's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
Alabama has a 21.8% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Alabama's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:91% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:76% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:78% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:74% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:79% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:45% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:44% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:73% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 8.2% | 96.6% |
| 7-2 | 20.1% | 54.8% |
| 6-3 | 27.9% | 5.3% |
| 5-4 | 23.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 12.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.9%Any 1 loss
96.9%
5.7%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.3%99.1%
0.3%99.1%
0.2%99.0%
0.4%98.9%
0.3%97.7%
0.7%96.8%
0.7%96.4%
1.1%92.5%
1.1%Any 2 losses
62.1%
15.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.0%
0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.4%
0.2%97.1%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.9%
0.2%96.9%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%96.0%
0.3%95.2%
0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.3%
0.1%93.4%
0.1%93.3%
0.1%93.0%
0.3%82.3%
0.1%78.4%
<0.1%78.1%
0.1%78.0%
0.1%77.5%
0.2%77.4%
0.2%77.2%
0.1%74.0%
0.1%72.6%
<0.1%72.1%
0.3%70.9%
0.3%69.9%
0.1%69.2%
0.2%67.1%
<0.1%66.8%
0.2%65.5%
0.4%65.3%
0.5%64.3%
0.3%64.0%
0.3%61.2%
0.4%60.9%
0.3%59.4%
0.4%58.9%
0.3%58.1%
0.2%57.4%
0.3%56.2%
0.4%55.3%
0.9%53.7%
0.6%53.1%
0.5%52.3%
0.4%51.8%
0.4%49.1%
0.3%46.2%
0.9%44.3%
0.9%36.5%
0.9%36.3%
1.4%Any 3 losses
19.1%
24.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%67.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.4%
0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.6%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.6%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%57.1%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.9%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.0%
0.3%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%54.3%
0.1%53.6%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%51.8%
0.1%51.3%
0.1%51.3%
<0.1%51.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.4%
0.2%48.4%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%47.4%
0.1%46.9%
<0.1%45.8%
0.1%43.1%
0.1%42.6%
0.3%42.5%
<0.1%42.0%
0.1%41.6%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%39.9%
0.4%39.8%
0.3%36.8%
<0.1%35.4%
0.3%34.4%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.4%
0.2%22.6%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.3%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.8%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.1%
0.2%9.9%
0.4%9.6%
0.1%9.6%
0.1%9.4%
0.1%9.2%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
0.1%8.8%
0.2%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.1%
0.1%7.7%
0.4%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.6%
0.2%7.3%
0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.0%
0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
0.3%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%6.1%
0.3%6.0%
0.3%6.0%
0.2%5.9%
0.2%5.7%
0.3%5.7%
0.3%5.5%
0.1%5.3%
0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
0.2%4.8%
0.3%4.7%
0.1%4.7%
0.3%4.6%
0.3%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.4%4.3%
0.3%4.2%
0.4%4.1%
0.4%4.0%
0.5%3.8%
0.3%3.8%
0.6%3.7%
0.2%3.5%
0.5%3.4%
0.3%3.3%
0.3%3.2%
0.3%3.1%
0.4%2.8%
0.3%2.7%
0.7%2.7%
1.1%2.7%
0.2%2.3%
0.2%2.1%
0.7%2.0%
1.1%2.0%
0.1%Any 4 losses
10.2%
8.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.1%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.3%
0.3%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%2.0%
0.3%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26