AlabamaCrimson Tide

2-0 1st (1-0) in SEC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

27.3%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Alabama's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?

Alabama has a 27.3% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Alabama's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
1	9/05	vsEast CarolinaECU	W48-10
2	9/12	@KentuckyUK	W45-17
3	9/19	vsFlorida StateFSU	Win prob:93%
4	9/26	vsSouth CarolinaSC	Win prob:82%
5	10/03	@Mississippi StateMSST	Win prob:76%
6	10/10	vsGeorgiaUGA	Win prob:47%
7	10/17	@TennesseeTENN	Win prob:59%
8	10/24	vsTexas A&MTA&M	Win prob:59%
10	11/07	@LSULSU	Win prob:44%
11	11/14	@VanderbiltVAN	Win prob:88%
12	11/21	vsChattanoogaUTC	Win prob:90%
13	11/28	vsAuburnAUB	Win prob:83%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	3.3%	100.0%
8-1	15.5%	91.7%
7-2	29.1%	32.6%
6-3	29.0%	1.0%
5-4	16.4%	0%
4-5	5.5%	0%
3-6	1.0%	0%
2-7	0.1%	0%
1-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

50.3%

26.6%

8.9%

7.7%

2.1%

1.5%

1.0%

0.7%

0.7%

0.3%

0.2%

Mississippi StateMSST

0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19
	GeorgiaUGA@ArkansasARK	27.2% (-0.1%)	31.3% (+4.0%)
	NC StateNCSU@VanderbiltVAN	27.2% (-0.1%)	27.3% (+0.0%)
	Florida StateFSU@AlabamaALA	27.4% (+0.1%)	27.3% (+0.0%)
	KentuckyUK@Texas A&MTA&M	28.6% (+1.4%)	27.2% (-0.1%)
	Mississippi StateMSST@South CarolinaSC	27.3% (-0.0%)	27.3% (+0.0%)
	FloridaFLA@AuburnAUB	26.6% (-0.7%)	27.9% (+0.7%)
	TroyTROY@MissouriMIZ	27.2% (-0.1%)	27.3% (+0.0%)
	LSULSU@Ole MissMISS	27.0% (-0.3%)	27.9% (+0.6%)
	New MexicoUNM@OklahomaOU	27.0% (-0.3%)	27.3% (+0.0%)
	Kennesaw StateKENN@TennesseeTENN	27.5% (+0.2%)	27.3% (+0.0%)
	UTSAUTSA@TexasTEX	27.8% (+0.5%)	27.3% (-0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

2.8%

Any 1 loss

92.0%

13.5%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

0.2%

99.0%

0.4%

98.6%

0.6%

98.1%

0.6%

97.9%

0.9%

96.1%

1.9%

93.9%

1.9%

93.8%

3.6%

79.9%

3.1%

Any 2 losses

37.8%

26.9%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.3%

<0.1%

99.3%

<0.1%

98.9%

<0.1%

98.8%

<0.1%

98.4%

<0.1%

98.0%

<0.1%

97.9%

0.1%

97.4%

<0.1%

96.1%

0.1%

95.6%

0.2%

94.1%

0.4%

93.7%

0.3%

93.6%

0.2%

93.1%

0.1%

81.0%

0.2%

80.5%

0.3%

65.0%

0.1%

63.5%

<0.1%

63.5%

<0.1%

61.6%

0.2%

57.4%

0.2%

57.2%

0.1%

56.1%

0.3%

54.6%

0.6%

53.0%

0.4%

49.1%

0.4%

49.1%

0.5%

46.7%

0.3%

45.0%

0.4%

44.6%

0.6%

43.7%

0.8%

42.7%

1.1%

40.4%

0.7%

37.3%

2.5%

36.9%

0.4%

35.9%

0.4%

35.0%

1.3%

31.9%

1.0%

31.5%

0.6%

31.4%

0.7%

27.7%

2.5%

24.6%

2.1%

17.6%

4.0%

16.7%

2.2%

Any 3 losses

7.0%

25.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

97.7%

<0.1%

97.4%

<0.1%

96.9%

<0.1%

94.3%

<0.1%

92.5%

<0.1%

83.7%

<0.1%

72.4%

<0.1%

68.2%

<0.1%

66.0%

<0.1%

66.0%

<0.1%

65.3%

<0.1%

64.9%

<0.1%

63.6%

<0.1%

63.0%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

62.1%

<0.1%

58.7%

<0.1%

57.6%

<0.1%

56.4%

<0.1%

55.7%

<0.1%

54.7%

<0.1%

53.0%

<0.1%

52.0%

<0.1%

50.4%

<0.1%

48.4%

<0.1%

48.4%

<0.1%

47.1%

<0.1%

46.6%

<0.1%

46.4%

<0.1%

45.6%

<0.1%

45.3%

<0.1%

45.1%

<0.1%

44.8%

0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

42.4%

<0.1%

42.0%

<0.1%

41.6%

<0.1%

41.0%

<0.1%

40.4%

<0.1%

40.4%

<0.1%

39.7%

<0.1%

39.1%

0.3%

38.7%

0.2%

38.0%

<0.1%

36.7%

<0.1%

36.6%

<0.1%

35.9%

0.1%

34.5%

0.1%

33.0%

<0.1%

32.3%

<0.1%

32.3%

<0.1%

32.2%

<0.1%

31.6%

<0.1%

31.5%

<0.1%

28.7%

0.3%

27.5%

0.2%

25.1%

0.1%

25.0%

0.2%

18.4%

0.4%

18.1%

0.3%

16.5%

0.2%

16.4%

0.1%

7.2%

<0.1%

4.6%

<0.1%

4.5%

<0.1%

4.4%

<0.1%

3.6%

<0.1%

3.2%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.8%

0.1%

2.8%

0.2%

2.6%

0.2%

2.4%

0.1%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.3%

0.1%

2.3%

0.1%

2.1%

0.1%

2.1%

0.2%

2.1%

0.1%

1.9%

0.1%

1.8%

0.2%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.7%

0.4%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.6%

0.2%

1.6%

0.4%

1.5%

0.4%

1.5%

0.2%

1.5%

0.3%

1.5%

0.1%

1.4%

0.8%

1.4%

0.4%

1.3%

0.5%

1.2%

0.3%

1.1%

0.5%

1.1%

0.7%

1.1%

0.6%

1.0%

0.5%

1.0%

0.8%

1.0%

0.3%

1.0%

0.8%

0.3%

0.7%

1.3%

0.7%

0.5%

0.7%

0.4%

0.7%

0.5%

0.6%

0.9%

0.6%

0.7%

0.6%

1.7%

0.5%

2.7%

0.5%

1.5%

Any 4 losses

2.7%

3.0%

100.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

68.8%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

61.1%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

58.3%

<0.1%

55.6%

<0.1%

54.8%

<0.1%

51.7%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

48.6%

<0.1%

46.9%

<0.1%

46.3%

<0.1%

43.8%

<0.1%

43.3%

<0.1%

40.9%

<0.1%

37.7%

<0.1%

37.0%

<0.1%

34.2%

<0.1%

33.6%

<0.1%

27.5%

<0.1%

26.0%

<0.1%

23.4%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

19.8%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

10.3%

<0.1%

5.9%

<0.1%

5.8%

<0.1%

5.5%

<0.1%

5.1%

<0.1%

4.9%

<0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

4.1%

<0.1%

4.1%

<0.1%

4.0%

<0.1%

3.8%

<0.1%

3.6%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.4%

<0.1%

3.3%

<0.1%

3.3%

<0.1%

3.2%

<0.1%

3.2%

<0.1%

3.1%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

2.8%

<0.1%

2.8%

<0.1%

2.7%

<0.1%

2.7%

<0.1%

2.5%

<0.1%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

1.9%

<0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.6%

<0.1%

1.6%

<0.1%

1.6%

<0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.4%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.2%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.1%

0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.0%

<0.1%

1.0%

<0.1%

0.9%

<0.1%

0.9%

<0.1%

0.9%

<0.1%

0.9%

<0.1%

0.9%

<0.1%

0.8%

<0.1%

0.8%

<0.1%

0.8%

<0.1%

0.8%

<0.1%

0.8%

<0.1%

0.7%

<0.1%

0.7%

<0.1%

0.6%

<0.1%

0.6%

<0.1%

0.6%

<0.1%

0.6%

<0.1%

0.6%

<0.1%

0.6%

0.1%

0.6%

<0.1%

0.6%

<0.1%

0.5%

<0.1%

0.5%

<0.1%

0.5%

0.2%

0.5%

<0.1%

0.5%

<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com