South CarolinaGamecocks
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is South Carolina's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
South Carolina has a 2.9% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. South Carolina's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:97% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:26% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:70% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:40% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:48% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:31% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:37% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:27% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:40% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.6% | 95.8% |
| 7-2 | 3.6% | 53.5% |
| 6-3 | 11.5% | 3.3% |
| 5-4 | 22.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 21.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 9.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 2.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
96.7%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
62.0%
1.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.4%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%67.3%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%51.1%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.2%
0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.6%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%46.2%
0.1%44.9%
<0.1%44.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
22.8%
5.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.0%
0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%53.5%
0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.4%
0.1%51.3%
<0.1%51.2%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.7%
0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.0%
0.1%39.7%
<0.1%39.2%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
0.2%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.3%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%Any 4 losses
5.8%
6.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.9%
0.2%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.4%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
0.3%2.0%
0.4%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2026-08-26