South CarolinaGamecocks
2-0 T2nd (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.5%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is South Carolina's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
South Carolina has a 1.5% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. South Carolina's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W57-0 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W45-9 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:66% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:18% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:86% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:37% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:48% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:32% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:31% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:88% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:22% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:72% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.5% | 87.8% |
| 7-2 | 3.6% | 26.2% |
| 6-3 | 12.6% | 0.3% |
| 5-4 | 25.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 30.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 19.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 6.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 1.5% (-0.0%) | 2.1% (+0.6%) | ||
| 1.5% (-0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.4% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.7% (+0.2%) | 1.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 0.4% (-1.1%) | 2.1% (+0.6%) | ||
| 1.5% (+0.0%) | 1.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 1.6% (+0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.4% (-0.1%) | 1.6% (+0.1%) | ||
| 1.5% (+0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.4% (-0.1%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.5% (-0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
87.6%
0.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
96.2%
<0.1%
92.3%
<0.1%
90.7%
<0.1%
89.9%
<0.1%
89.8%
<0.1%
89.4%
0.1%
88.2%
<0.1%
87.3%
<0.1%
80.8%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
29.4%
2.7%100.0%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%89.0%
<0.1%83.7%
<0.1%80.2%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%53.4%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%46.8%
<0.1%46.6%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%37.7%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.2%
<0.1%30.9%
0.2%30.3%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%29.1%
<0.1%28.8%
0.1%28.4%
<0.1%27.8%
0.2%26.6%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.7%
0.1%24.9%
0.2%23.3%
0.1%20.6%
<0.1%18.8%
0.4%17.3%
0.3%13.3%
0.2%Any 3 losses
12.4%
2.3%70.8%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.0%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%32.9%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.9%
<0.1%29.9%
0.1%27.1%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%24.9%
<0.1%24.9%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%19.4%
0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.0%
0.2%17.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.1%1.0%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
0.9%
0.7%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
0.2%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17