Ole MissRebels
2-0 T2nd (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.7%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Ole Miss's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
Ole Miss has a 1.7% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Ole Miss's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/06 | W41-38 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W41-9 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:35% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:39% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:70% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:68% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:8% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:63% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:24% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:34% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:69% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.4% | 96.0% |
| 7-2 | 2.9% | 39.2% |
| 6-3 | 11.1% | 1.8% |
| 5-4 | 23.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 29.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 21.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 9.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 2.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 1.7% (-0.0%) | 2.1% (+0.3%) | ||
| 1.7% (+0.0%) | 1.7% (-0.0%) | ||
| 1.6% (-0.1%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.9% (+0.2%) | 1.7% (-0.0%) | ||
| 1.8% (+0.1%) | 1.7% (-0.0%) | ||
| 1.7% (-0.0%) | 1.8% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.8% (+0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.5% (-1.2%) | 4.0% (+2.3%) | ||
| 1.8% (+0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 1.7% (-0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 2.0% (+0.3%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
95.9%
0.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.6%
<0.1%
98.7%
<0.1%
97.6%
<0.1%
97.5%
<0.1%
95.7%
0.2%
93.9%
<0.1%
92.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
39.7%
2.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.9%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.2%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.2%
<0.1%63.5%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%57.8%
<0.1%54.1%
<0.1%53.5%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%50.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.9%
<0.1%49.3%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.3%
0.3%46.8%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.1%
0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.4%
<0.1%41.6%
0.4%31.5%
0.4%29.9%
<0.1%21.8%
0.6%Any 3 losses
2.9%
9.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%45.9%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%44.5%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%42.2%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
0.2%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
0.2%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
0.6%2.6%
0.2%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.2%1.6%
0.5%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
0.7%1.4%
0.3%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.4%1.1%
1.2%1.1%
0.9%1.0%
<0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.9%
0.3%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
1.6%
0.9%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17