Ole MissRebels
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Ole Miss's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
Ole Miss has a 7.8% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Ole Miss's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/06 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:97% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:22% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:36% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:40% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:80% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.6% | 99.1% |
| 7-2 | 7.3% | 62.0% |
| 6-3 | 18.1% | 8.6% |
| 5-4 | 27.0% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 24.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 14.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.2%
1.0%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.3%98.5%
<0.1%98.2%
0.1%97.6%
0.1%Any 2 losses
66.8%
4.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%97.8%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%84.8%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.2%
<0.1%76.3%
0.1%72.9%
0.2%72.6%
0.1%72.6%
0.3%71.9%
<0.1%71.6%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%68.9%
<0.1%68.1%
<0.1%65.9%
0.2%65.8%
0.2%65.5%
0.2%64.5%
<0.1%63.4%
0.2%62.2%
<0.1%61.0%
<0.1%58.2%
<0.1%53.8%
0.1%51.7%
0.4%51.3%
0.4%46.1%
0.1%42.9%
0.6%Any 3 losses
19.8%
13.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.4%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.2%
<0.1%70.9%
0.1%70.7%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.8%
0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%59.6%
0.1%59.4%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.9%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%53.9%
0.3%53.8%
<0.1%51.2%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%44.5%
0.3%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%36.9%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.6%
0.1%14.5%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.1%
0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.1%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
0.2%10.5%
0.2%10.2%
0.2%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
0.3%9.9%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.3%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
0.3%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
0.4%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
0.4%7.1%
0.2%7.0%
0.3%6.8%
0.6%6.7%
0.5%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.2%6.4%
0.1%6.3%
0.3%6.3%
0.4%6.1%
0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.5%
0.2%5.4%
0.2%5.0%
0.6%4.9%
0.3%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.4%
<0.1%4.1%
0.8%Any 4 losses
11.6%
7.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.1%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.6%
0.2%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.3%
0.3%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.3%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.5%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
0.3%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
0.5%5.7%
0.1%5.7%
0.4%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26