FloridaGators
2-0 T2nd (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.6%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Florida's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
Florida has a 2.6% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Florida's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W66-21 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W52-3 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:48% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:61% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:55% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:63% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:8% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:19% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:53% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:79% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:84% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:69% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.1% | 86.9% |
| 7-2 | 7.0% | 21.0% |
| 6-3 | 19.4% | 0.5% |
| 5-4 | 29.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 25.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 13.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 2.6% (-0.0%) | 3.0% (+0.4%) | ||
| 2.6% (+0.0%) | 2.6% (-0.0%) | ||
| 2.5% (-0.1%) | 2.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 3.3% (+0.7%) | 2.6% (-0.0%) | ||
| 2.5% (-0.1%) | 2.7% (+0.1%) | ||
| 4.5% (+1.9%) | 0.8% (-1.8%) | ||
| 2.5% (-0.1%) | 2.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 2.3% (-0.3%) | 3.1% (+0.5%) | ||
| 2.6% (+0.0%) | 2.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 2.5% (-0.1%) | 2.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 2.6% (+0.1%) | 2.6% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
87.5%
0.8%
100.0%
<0.1%
96.7%
<0.1%
96.1%
<0.1%
94.2%
<0.1%
93.6%
<0.1%
93.0%
<0.1%
91.2%
<0.1%
91.2%
<0.1%
85.4%
0.4%
84.5%
0.2%Any 2 losses
25.0%
5.2%97.8%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.4%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%85.3%
0.2%81.7%
<0.1%55.7%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%51.0%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%47.9%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%46.8%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%45.3%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.1%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%27.2%
0.4%27.1%
0.3%26.9%
0.1%26.9%
0.1%26.4%
0.1%26.0%
0.1%25.7%
0.2%25.2%
0.1%24.7%
0.4%22.8%
0.5%21.8%
0.3%21.1%
<0.1%9.8%
1.8%Any 3 losses
7.3%
6.7%75.0%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.3%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%36.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%32.5%
<0.1%30.5%
0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.1%
<0.1%28.5%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%28.1%
0.1%27.7%
<0.1%26.6%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.4%
<0.1%25.0%
0.1%24.9%
0.2%22.7%
<0.1%22.4%
0.2%9.4%
0.8%6.4%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
0.1%1.1%
0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%1.0%
0.3%1.0%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
0.4%0.9%
0.4%0.8%
0.3%0.8%
0.3%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
0.3%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
0.2%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.2%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
0.2%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.6%
0.1%Any 4 losses
1.0%
1.6%20.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
0.1%0.5%
0.1%0.5%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17