Florida

FloridaGators

5-3 T9th (3-3) in SEC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.8%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Florida's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?

Florida has a 2.8% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Florida's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Florida need to do to reach the SEC Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Florida's SEC Championship Game odds at 10.7%; even one more loss drops that to 10.8%.

What is the biggest game this week for Florida's SEC Championship Game odds?

Florida's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Oklahoma would put its SEC Championship Game odds at 4.4%, while a loss would drop them to -.

FloridaSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsFL AtlanticFAU
W66-21
29/12
vsCampbellCAM
W52-3
39/19
@AuburnAUB
W44-39
49/26
vsMississippiMISS
W52-28
510/03
@MissouriMIZ
L17-45
610/10
vsSouth CarolinaSC
L19-38
710/17
@TexasTEX
W27-24
910/31
vsGeorgiaUGA(N)
L8-27
1011/07
vsOklahomaOU
Win prob:64%
1111/14
@KentuckyUK
Win prob:44%
1211/21
vsVanderbiltVAN
Win prob:91%
1311/27
@Florida StFSU
Win prob:61%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

FloridaRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
6-3
26.0%
10.8%
5-4
49.4%
0%
4-5
22.9%
0%
3-6
1.8%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Florida CCG Opponents

if Florida makes the CCG

UGAGeorgia
65.2%
MISSMississippi
11.5%
LSULSU
6.1%
ALAAlabama
5.7%
TEXTexas
5.4%
UKKentucky
2.9%
MIZMissouri
1.4%
TENNTennessee
1.1%
SCSouth Carolina
0.7%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

FloridaThis Week's Impact

Game
FloridaCCG OddsAway Wins
FloridaCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Nov 7
TexasTEX@MissouriMIZ
2.4%
(-0.4%)		3.9%
(+1.1%)
ArkansasARK@AuburnAUB
2.1%
(-0.7%)		2.9%
(+0.1%)
Texas A&MTA&M@South CarolinaSC
2.1%
(-0.7%)		3.3%
(+0.5%)
AlabamaALA@LSULSU
1.4%
(-1.4%)		3.8%
(+1.0%)
VanderbiltVAN@Mississippi StMSST
3.7%
(+0.9%)		2.6%
(-0.2%)
KentuckyUK@TennesseeTENN
2.9%
(+0.1%)		2.7%
(-0.1%)
GeorgiaUGA@MississippiMISS
3.1%
(+0.3%)		2.5%
(-0.3%)
OklahomaOU@FloridaFLA
0.0%
(-2.8%)		4.4%
(+1.6%)

Best Winner Combination for Florida

VanderbiltVanderbiltGeorgiaGeorgiaTennesseeTennesseeFloridaFloridaAuburnAuburnLSULSUMissouriMissouriSouth CarolinaSouth Carolina

CCG: 15.5% • Scenario: 0.4%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Florida

FloridaFloridaLSULSU

CCG: 5.8% • Scenario: 37.7%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

FloridaLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Florida CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
10.7%
15.9%
Florida St
10.8%
10.1%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

FloridaCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com