FloridaGators
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Florida's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
Florida has a 4.2% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Florida's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:95% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:48% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:47% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:18% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:25% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:54% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.8% | 96.6% |
| 7-2 | 4.4% | 56.7% |
| 6-3 | 13.4% | 6.6% |
| 5-4 | 23.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 27.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 19.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 8.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 2.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
95.8%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%94.0%
<0.1%92.7%
0.1%Any 2 losses
62.4%
2.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%92.4%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%63.4%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%59.0%
0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.1%
0.1%56.8%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%52.1%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.2%
0.1%34.9%
0.4%Any 3 losses
19.5%
8.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.5%
0.1%61.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.9%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%53.2%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%52.8%
0.1%52.5%
0.1%50.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.4%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.1%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.9%
0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.2%
0.2%7.1%
0.1%6.9%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.2%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.7%
0.2%5.6%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.5%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.4%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.5%
0.5%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
0.4%3.1%
0.4%2.5%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
8.5%
6.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.5%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.3%5.1%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
0.4%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
0.4%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
0.3%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26