Mississippi StateBulldogs
2-0 T2nd (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Mississippi State's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
Mississippi State has a 0.3% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Mississippi State's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W62-13 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W38-13 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:34% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:58% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:24% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:14% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:40% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:4% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:74% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:52% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:31% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 89.7% |
| 7-2 | 0.7% | 30.8% |
| 6-3 | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| 5-4 | 13.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 25.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 29.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 19.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 6.8% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.2%) | ||
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.7% (+0.4%) | 0.1% (-0.2%) | ||
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
88.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.2%
<0.1%
90.6%
<0.1%
88.2%
<0.1%
85.1%
<0.1%
83.3%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
30.6%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.0%
<0.1%55.4%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%47.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%38.8%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%37.7%
<0.1%33.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.7%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%29.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.4%
0.2%24.0%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.5%
<0.1%17.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
1.6%
3.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.8%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.1%1.1%
0.4%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%1.0%
0.3%1.0%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
0.5%0.5%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
1.5%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17