Ohio StateBuckeyes
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
61.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Ohio State's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Ohio State has a 61.1% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Ohio State's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:99% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:48% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:99% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:93% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:82% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:96% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:57% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:96% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:85% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 12.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 31.6% | 98.2% |
| 7-2 | 32.2% | 52.9% |
| 6-3 | 17.4% | 4.0% |
| 5-4 | 5.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 62.5% (+1.4%) | 61.1% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
5.9%Any 1 loss
98.8%
21.3%
100.0%
6.2%
100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.8%
0.5%
99.8%
1.3%
99.3%
1.1%
99.0%
4.4%
98.4%
3.4%
96.6%
0.2%
96.6%
2.5%
96.3%
1.3%Any 2 losses
76.4%
31.6%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.5%99.8%
1.4%99.1%
1.1%99.0%
4.7%98.6%
0.3%98.2%
3.7%98.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.0%
1.4%95.7%
2.6%92.1%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%83.0%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%81.0%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.5%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.3%
0.2%71.9%
0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.7%
0.5%69.2%
0.2%68.5%
0.2%67.4%
0.2%67.3%
0.2%67.3%
<0.1%66.9%
0.3%65.7%
0.1%65.1%
0.8%64.6%
0.1%64.3%
0.3%64.0%
0.1%62.1%
0.6%61.2%
0.9%61.2%
0.6%60.6%
0.7%56.8%
0.6%54.7%
<0.1%49.7%
0.2%44.4%
1.0%44.1%
1.8%42.6%
0.8%41.9%
1.4%35.5%
2.5%Any 3 losses
38.2%
24.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.6%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%78.7%
<0.1%77.2%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.7%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%71.4%
0.3%71.4%
<0.1%71.2%
<0.1%71.1%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
0.1%68.1%
0.2%67.2%
0.1%66.9%
0.3%66.8%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
0.2%64.3%
0.6%64.1%
1.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.7%
0.5%63.1%
0.3%63.0%
0.1%62.1%
0.2%61.7%
0.8%61.5%
0.5%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.9%
0.8%59.7%
<0.1%58.7%
0.3%57.9%
<0.1%56.8%
0.1%54.2%
0.6%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
1.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.7%
1.9%44.8%
1.6%44.1%
0.8%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%35.9%
2.8%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
0.2%7.0%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.4%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
0.2%5.2%
0.3%5.1%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.5%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.6%3.9%
0.5%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
0.3%3.4%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.6%
0.3%2.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.5%1.8%
1.0%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
0.6%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
5.4%
8.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
0.2%6.1%
0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.6%
0.2%5.5%
0.2%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.2%5.1%
<0.1%4.3%
0.4%4.3%
0.4%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.2%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
0.5%3.2%
0.5%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.6%3.0%
0.2%2.7%
0.2%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
0.4%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.3%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.6%1.6%
1.2%Data from 2026-08-26