Ohio St

Ohio StateBuckeyes

6-2 3rd (4-1) in B1G

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

61.9%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Ohio State's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?

Ohio State has a 61.9% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Ohio State's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Ohio State need to do to reach the Big Ten Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Ohio State's Big Ten Championship Game odds at 86.9%; even one more loss drops that to 40.2%.

What is the biggest game this week for Ohio State's Big Ten Championship Game odds?

Ohio State's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Oregon would put its Big Ten Championship Game odds at 71.2%, while a loss would drop them to 16.7%.

Ohio StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsBall StBALL
W56-3
29/12
@TexasTEX
L23-24
39/19
vsKentKENT
W59-3
49/26
vsIllinoisILL
W42-19
510/03
@IowaIOWA
W31-14
610/10
vsMarylandMD
W45-16
710/17
@IndianaIU
W19-15
910/31
@USCUSC
L18-30
1011/07
vsOregonORE
Win prob:83%
1111/14
vsNorthwesternNU
Win prob:90%
1211/21
@NebraskaNEB
Win prob:78%
1311/28
vsMichiganMICH
Win prob:93%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Ohio StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-1
53.9%
86.9%
7-2
36.7%
40.2%
6-3
8.6%
3.3%
5-4
0.8%
0%
4-5
0.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Ohio St CCG Opponents

if Ohio St makes the CCG

IUIndiana
57.3%
UCLAUCLA
29.8%
USCUSC
10.3%
WISWisconsin
1.1%
IOWAIowa
0.9%
OREOregon
0.4%
NUNorthwestern
0.1%
MINNMinnesota
<0.1%
ILLIllinois
<0.1%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Ohio StThis Week's Impact

Game
Ohio StCCG OddsAway Wins
Ohio StCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Nov 6
NebraskaNEB@IllinoisILL
61.8%
(-0.1%)		62.1%
(+0.2%)
Sat, Nov 7
UCLAUCLA@MinnesotaMINN
59.9%
(-2.0%)		67.0%
(+5.1%)
MarylandMD@PurduePUR
62.2%
(+0.3%)		61.8%
(-0.1%)
OregonORE@Ohio StOSU
16.7%
(-45.3%)		71.2%
(+9.3%)
Penn StPSU@WashingtonWASH
62.0%
(+0.1%)		61.8%
(-0.1%)
RutgersRUTG@WisconsinWIS
65.4%
(+3.5%)		61.5%
(-0.4%)
IowaIOWA@NorthwesternNU
63.7%
(+1.8%)		60.6%
(-1.3%)
Michigan StMSU@MichiganMICH
60.6%
(-1.3%)		62.1%
(+0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for Ohio St

Penn StPenn StateMichiganMichiganRutgersRutgersMarylandMarylandIowaIowaMinnesotaMinnesotaIllinoisIllinoisOhio StOhio State

CCG: 81.8% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Ohio St

Ohio StOhio State

CCG: 71.0% • Scenario: 82.9%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Ohio StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Ohio St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
86.9%
53.9%
Any 1 loss
40.2%
36.7%
Northwestern
49.8%
6.1%
Nebraska
48.1%
15.7%
Michigan
38.1%
3.8%
Oregon
24.6%
11.1%
Any 2 losses
3.3%
8.6%
MichiganNebraska
7.2%
1.1%
NebraskaNorthwestern
3.9%
1.8%
MichiganNorthwestern
3.4%
0.4%
MichiganOregon
2.6%
0.8%
NebraskaOregon
2.6%
3.2%
NorthwesternOregon
1.3%
1.2%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Ohio StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com