Ohio StateBuckeyes
1-1 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
79.5%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Ohio State's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Ohio State has a 79.5% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Ohio State's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W56-3 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L23-24 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:99% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:99% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:93% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:99% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:59% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:91% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:99% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:86% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 30.7% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 43.2% | 94.0% |
| 7-2 | 20.8% | 39.0% |
| 6-3 | 4.7% | 1.0% |
| 5-4 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 79.4% (-0.1%) | 79.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 79.8% (+0.3%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 79.7% (+0.2%) | 79.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 80.0% (+0.5%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 80.1% (+0.6%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 79.5% (+0.1%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 79.5% (-0.0%) | 80.3% (+0.8%) | ||
| 79.8% (+0.4%) | 79.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 79.5% (+0.1%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 80.0% (+0.5%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 79.4% (-0.1%) | 79.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 79.6% (+0.1%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 79.4% (-0.1%) | 79.5% (+0.1%) | ||
| 79.5% (+0.1%) | 79.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 79.5% (+0.0%) | 79.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 79.7% (+0.2%) | 79.4% (-0.1%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
30.4%Any 1 loss
94.1%
43.1%
100.0%
0.3%
99.9%
0.3%
99.5%
2.1%
99.1%
0.3%
98.2%
4.8%
97.7%
3.1%
95.5%
0.3%
93.2%
2.0%
92.6%
21.5%
92.2%
8.3%Any 2 losses
40.1%
21.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%94.2%
<0.1%93.8%
0.2%92.9%
<0.1%71.6%
<0.1%68.9%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%59.9%
<0.1%58.9%
0.3%58.1%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%53.5%
0.2%53.4%
0.2%52.6%
<0.1%52.1%
<0.1%51.5%
0.2%51.3%
<0.1%50.8%
0.3%50.1%
<0.1%49.7%
<0.1%49.1%
0.1%48.7%
0.6%48.1%
0.5%48.1%
1.5%47.2%
0.2%46.6%
0.1%45.8%
1.3%43.5%
3.4%39.9%
0.2%37.8%
0.5%36.8%
0.8%35.0%
2.2%34.0%
1.4%28.2%
5.9%Any 3 losses
2.8%
4.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%45.3%
<0.1%44.6%
<0.1%43.6%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.6%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.7%
<0.1%37.3%
<0.1%30.7%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.4%1.1%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.8%
0.9%0.8%
0.2%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
0.4%0.7%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
0.1%0.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17