Wisconsin

WisconsinBadgers

0-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is Wisconsin's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?

Wisconsin has a 1.8% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Wisconsin's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

WisconsinSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
9/06
vsNotre DameND(N)
Win prob:11%
9/12
vsWestern IllinoisWIU
Win prob:90%
9/19
vsE MichiganEMU
Win prob:92%
9/26
@Penn StPSU
Win prob:25%
10/03
vsMichigan StMSU
Win prob:66%
10/17
@UCLAUCLA
Win prob:54%
10/24
vsUSCUSC
Win prob:28%
10/31
@IowaIOWA
Win prob:31%
11/07
vsRutgersRUTG
Win prob:67%
11/14
@MarylandMD
Win prob:53%
11/21
@PurduePUR
Win prob:58%
11/27
vsMinnesotaMINN
Win prob:65%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

WisconsinRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.1%
100.0%
8-1
1.3%
71.5%
7-2
6.1%
13.1%
6-3
16.0%
0.1%
5-4
26.0%
0%
4-5
26.0%
0%
3-6
16.5%
0%
2-7
6.4%
0%
1-8
1.4%
0%
0-9
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Wisconsin CCG Opponents

if Wisconsin makes the CCG

Ohio StateOhio St
41.5%
OregonOregon
27.5%
IndianaIndiana
22.8%
USCUSC
4.1%
Penn StatePenn St
4.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

WisconsinThis Week's Impact

Game
WisconsinCCG OddsAway
WisconsinCCG OddsHome
San Jose StSJSU@USCUSC
1.6%
(-0.2%)		1.8%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

WisconsinLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Wisconsin CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
87.4%
0.2%
Notre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Minnesota
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa
93.9%
<0.1%
Penn St
81.5%
<0.1%
Maryland
80.0%
<0.1%
UCLA
80.0%
<0.1%
Rutgers
80.0%
<0.1%
Purdue
71.4%
<0.1%
USC
68.2%
<0.1%
Michigan St
50.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
53.8%
1.3%
E MichiganNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
USCWestern Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameWestern Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Michigan StMinnesota
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganWestern Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
UCLAWestern Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowa
100.0%
<0.1%
Michigan StNotre Dame
78.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre Dame
77.4%
<0.1%
Notre DamePurdue
75.0%
<0.1%
PurdueRutgers
75.0%
<0.1%
MarylandWestern Illinois
75.0%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn St
73.0%
0.2%
IowaNotre Dame
72.7%
0.2%
Notre DameUCLA
71.0%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre Dame
69.0%
<0.1%
PurdueWestern Illinois
66.7%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgers
64.7%
<0.1%
Notre DameUSC
62.3%
0.2%
E MichiganPenn St
50.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganUSC
50.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaPurdue
50.0%
<0.1%
IowaWestern Illinois
50.0%
<0.1%
MarylandMichigan St
40.0%
<0.1%
IowaPurdue
36.4%
<0.1%
IowaMaryland
35.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaUCLA
33.3%
<0.1%
RutgersUCLA
28.6%
<0.1%
Michigan StUSC
27.3%
<0.1%
Penn StUCLA
25.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaRutgers
25.0%
<0.1%
MarylandUCLA
25.0%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesota
20.0%
<0.1%
MarylandPenn St
17.9%
<0.1%
Penn StRutgers
16.7%
<0.1%
PurdueUSC
15.4%
<0.1%
Penn StPurdue
14.3%
<0.1%
PurdueUCLA
14.3%
<0.1%
IowaRutgers
11.1%
<0.1%
MinnesotaUSC
10.0%
<0.1%
IowaUCLA
9.1%
<0.1%
IowaMinnesota
9.1%
<0.1%
IowaPenn St
8.9%
<0.1%
MinnesotaPenn St
8.3%
<0.1%
Michigan StPenn St
7.7%
<0.1%
MarylandUSC
7.1%
<0.1%
Penn StUSC
5.7%
<0.1%
UCLAUSC
5.3%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
15.3%
4.8%
E MichiganMarylandNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesotaWestern Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganUSCWestern Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
IowaPurdueWestern Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Michigan StNotre DameWestern Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMichigan StPurdue
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMinnesotaNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DamePurdue
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaMinnesota
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameWestern Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
IowaNotre DameWestern Illinois
92.3%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameUSC
77.8%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameUCLA
75.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameWestern Illinois
75.0%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameWestern Illinois
75.0%
<0.1%
Notre DamePurdueWestern Illinois
72.7%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DamePenn St
70.6%
<0.1%
E MichiganMichigan StNotre Dame
66.7%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaNotre Dame
64.3%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StWestern Illinois
63.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUCLAWestern Illinois
57.1%
<0.1%
E MichiganMarylandUSC
50.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgersWestern Illinois
50.0%
<0.1%
IowaUCLAWestern Illinois
50.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaUCLA
50.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaMaryland
50.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMinnesotaPenn St
50.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUSCWestern Illinois
45.5%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgersUCLA
33.3%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaUSC
33.3%
<0.1%
E MichiganPenn StPurdue
33.3%
<0.1%
Michigan StPenn StWestern Illinois
33.3%
<0.1%
E MichiganPenn StRutgers
33.3%
<0.1%
Michigan StNotre DameRutgers
30.8%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DamePurdue
28.3%
<0.1%
Michigan StNotre DameUCLA
27.6%
<0.1%
Notre DamePurdueRutgers
26.7%
<0.1%
E MichiganUCLAUSC
25.0%
<0.1%
PurdueUSCWestern Illinois
25.0%
<0.1%
Michigan StNotre DamePenn St
23.6%
0.1%
E MichiganIowaPenn St
22.2%
<0.1%
Notre DamePurdueUCLA
21.8%
<0.1%
IowaNotre DamePurdue
21.8%
0.1%
Michigan StNotre DamePurdue
21.4%
<0.1%
Michigan StMinnesotaNotre Dame
21.1%
<0.1%
IowaMinnesotaNotre Dame
20.0%
0.1%
MarylandNotre DameRutgers
20.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganPenn StUCLA
20.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameRutgers
18.8%
<0.1%
IowaMarylandNotre Dame
18.6%
0.2%
MinnesotaNotre DamePurdue
18.5%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StUCLA
18.3%
0.2%
MarylandNotre DamePenn St
18.0%
0.2%
MarylandMinnesotaNotre Dame
17.5%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StPurdue
17.1%
0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DamePenn St
17.0%
0.1%
IowaMichigan StNotre Dame
16.9%
<0.1%
IowaNotre DameUCLA
16.7%
0.1%
UCLAUSCWestern Illinois
16.7%
<0.1%
MarylandMichigan StNotre Dame
15.8%
<0.1%
IowaNotre DameRutgers
15.1%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameUCLA
14.3%
<0.1%
Penn StUSCWestern Illinois
14.3%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StRutgers
14.1%
0.1%
IowaNotre DamePenn St
13.6%
0.5%
IowaPenn StWestern Illinois
12.5%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameUCLA
12.5%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgersUSC
9.5%
0.1%
Michigan StNotre DameUSC
8.6%
0.1%
Notre DamePurdueUSC
8.5%
0.2%
Notre DameUCLAUSC
8.4%
0.1%
MarylandNotre DameUSC
8.0%
0.2%
MinnesotaNotre DameUSC
6.3%
0.1%
IowaNotre DameUSC
4.8%
0.4%
Notre DamePenn StUSC
4.0%
0.6%
MarylandPenn StUCLA
3.9%
<0.1%
IowaMichigan StPenn St
3.6%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
10.0%
1.3%
E MichiganMichigan StNotre DameUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DamePurdueWestern Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMichigan StNotre DameRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaMinnesotaWestern Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameRutgersWestern Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaNotre DameWestern Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameUCLAWestern Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMinnesotaNotre DamePurdue
75.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMinnesotaNotre DameUCLA
50.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DamePurdueUCLA
50.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMarylandNotre DameRutgers
50.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameRutgersUCLA
50.0%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DameUCLAWestern Illinois
50.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DamePurdueRutgers
50.0%
<0.1%
MarylandMichigan StNotre DameWestern Illinois
40.0%
<0.1%
Notre DamePurdueRutgersWestern Illinois
40.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DamePenn StRutgers
37.5%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DamePenn StWestern Illinois
33.3%
<0.1%
Michigan StMinnesotaNotre DameWestern Illinois
33.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgersUCLAWestern Illinois
33.3%
<0.1%
IowaMichigan StNotre DameWestern Illinois
25.0%
<0.1%
IowaMinnesotaNotre DameWestern Illinois
25.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaNotre DamePurdue
25.0%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DamePurdueWestern Illinois
25.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DamePenn StPurdue
21.1%
<0.1%
Notre DamePurdueUCLAWestern Illinois
20.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMarylandMichigan StNotre Dame
20.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMinnesotaNotre DamePenn St
20.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMinnesotaNotre DameRutgers
20.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMichigan StNotre DamePenn St
20.0%
<0.1%
Michigan StNotre DameUCLAWestern Illinois
20.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaPenn StUCLA
20.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DamePenn StUCLA
19.1%
<0.1%
IowaNotre DameUCLAWestern Illinois
18.8%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNotre DameUCLAWestern Illinois
16.7%
<0.1%
Michigan StNotre DamePenn StWestern Illinois
16.7%
<0.1%
E MichiganMarylandNotre DameUCLA
16.7%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StPurdueWestern Illinois
15.4%
<0.1%
MarylandNotre DamePenn StWestern Illinois
14.3%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaNotre DameUCLA
14.3%
<0.1%
IowaNotre DamePenn StWestern Illinois
13.6%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaNotre DamePenn St
13.5%
<0.1%
Notre DamePurdueUSCWestern Illinois
13.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMarylandNotre DamePenn St
13.0%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StRutgersWestern Illinois
12.5%
<0.1%
IowaNotre DamePurdueWestern Illinois
12.5%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StUCLAWestern Illinois
10.7%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaMarylandNotre Dame
10.5%
<0.1%
E MichiganMarylandNotre DameUSC
10.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaMinnesotaNotre Dame
10.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgersUSCWestern Illinois
10.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameRutgersUSC
10.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaMichigan StNotre Dame
10.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DamePenn StUSC
7.3%
<0.1%
IowaNotre DameRutgersWestern Illinois
7.1%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StUSCWestern Illinois
6.6%
<0.1%
IowaMarylandNotre DameWestern Illinois
5.9%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DamePurdueUSC
4.8%
<0.1%
IowaNotre DameUSCWestern Illinois
3.2%
<0.1%
MarylandMinnesotaNotre DameUCLA
2.8%
<0.1%
E MichiganIowaNotre DameUSC
2.2%
<0.1%
Notre DamePenn StRutgersUCLA
1.3%
<0.1%
IowaNotre DamePurdueUCLA
1.0%
0.1%
MarylandNotre DamePenn StPurdue
0.7%
0.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com