MarylandTerrapins
2-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Maryland's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Maryland has a 0.1% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Maryland's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W62-0 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W38-14 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:43% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:53% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:16% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:1% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:90% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:62% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:61% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:68% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:10% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:24% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 81.7% |
| 7-2 | 1.0% | 10.0% |
| 6-3 | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 21.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 32.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 25.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 10.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
78.3%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
81.8%
<0.1%
78.3%
<0.1%
72.7%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
14.6%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.8%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.1%
0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%5.2%
0.2%Any 3 losses
8.8%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.3%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%4.1%
0.3%1.0%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17