Northwestern

NorthwesternWildcats

1-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.0%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Northwestern's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?

Northwestern has a <0.1% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Northwestern's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

NorthwesternSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsSouth Dakota StateSDST
W34-18
39/19
vsColoradoCOLO
Win prob:52%
49/25
@IndianaIU
Win prob:2%
510/02
vsPenn StPSU
Win prob:17%
610/10
vsBall StBALL
Win prob:97%
710/17
@Michigan StMSU
Win prob:39%
810/24
vsRutgersRUTG
Win prob:85%
910/31
@OregonORE
Win prob:8%
1011/07
vsIowaIOWA
Win prob:34%
1111/14
@Ohio StOSU
Win prob:1%
1211/21
@MinnesotaMINN
Win prob:54%
1311/28
vsIllinoisILL
Win prob:52%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

NorthwesternRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0%
0%
8-1
0%
80.0%
7-2
0.1%
14.0%
6-3
1.1%
0.0%
5-4
7.0%
0%
4-5
21.5%
0%
3-6
33.4%
0%
2-7
26.5%
0%
1-8
9.4%
0%
0-9
1.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Northwestern CCG Opponents

if Northwestern makes the CCG

OSUOhio St
100%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

NorthwesternThis Week's Impact

Game
NorthwesternCCG OddsAway Wins
NorthwesternCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Sep 18
Portland StatePRST@OregonORE
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
Sat, Sep 19
AkronAKR@MinnesotaMINN
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
BuffaloBUF@Penn StPSU
0.0%
(-0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
KentKENT@Ohio StOSU
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
E MichiganEMU@WisconsinWIS
0.0%
(-0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
Southern IllinoisSIU@IllinoisILL
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
USCUSC@RutgersRUTG
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
UTEPUTEP@MichiganMICH
0.0%
(-0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
Northern IowaUNI@IowaIOWA
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
WKUWKU@IndianaIU
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
Eastern WashingtonEWU@WashingtonWASH
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
North DakotaUND@NebraskaNEB
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
ColoradoCOLO@NorthwesternNU
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
Michigan StMSU@Notre DameND
0.0%
(-0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
Virginia TechVT@MarylandMD
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)
PurduePUR@UCLAUCLA
0.0%
(+0.0%)		0.0%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

NorthwesternLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Northwestern CCG Probability
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
Oregon
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa
100.0%
<0.1%
Indiana
100.0%
<0.1%
Ohio St
50.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
5.2%
<0.1%
IndianaRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
Michigan StMinnesota
100.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoOhio St
80.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoIndiana
80.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisOhio St
50.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaOhio St
50.0%
<0.1%
Michigan StOregon
50.0%
<0.1%
OregonPenn St
33.3%
<0.1%
Michigan StOhio St
28.6%
<0.1%
Ohio StPenn St
27.3%
<0.1%
Ohio StOregon
26.5%
<0.1%
IndianaMinnesota
25.0%
<0.1%
IndianaIowa
20.0%
<0.1%
IndianaOregon
18.2%
<0.1%
IndianaPenn St
12.5%
<0.1%
IowaOhio St
9.1%
<0.1%
IndianaOhio St
5.2%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
7.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoIllinoisOhio St
100.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoOhio StRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoIndianaMichigan St
100.0%
<0.1%
Ball StOhio StOregon
100.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoIndianaMinnesota
100.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowaOhio St
57.1%
<0.1%
ColoradoMinnesotaOhio St
50.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoIllinoisIndiana
50.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoIndianaIowa
33.3%
<0.1%
ColoradoMichigan StOhio St
30.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoOregonPenn St
25.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoOhio StOregon
23.8%
<0.1%
ColoradoIndianaPenn St
14.3%
<0.1%
ColoradoIndianaOregon
12.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoIndianaOhio St
7.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoOhio StPenn St
6.7%
<0.1%
MinnesotaOhio StOregon
2.9%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%
Ball StColoradoIndianaOhio St
25.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoIllinoisOhio StPenn St
8.3%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

NorthwesternCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com