Iowa

IowaHawkeyes

0-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

4.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is Iowa's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?

Iowa has a 4.1% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Iowa's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

IowaSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
9/05
vsN IllinoisNIU
Win prob:95%
9/12
vsIowa StISU
Win prob:80%
9/19
vsNorthern IowaUNI
Win prob:90%
9/26
@MichiganMICH
Win prob:32%
10/03
vsOhio StOSU
Win prob:18%
10/09
@WashingtonWASH
Win prob:46%
10/24
@MinnesotaMINN
Win prob:67%
10/31
vsWisconsinWIS
Win prob:69%
11/07
@NorthwesternNU
Win prob:65%
11/14
vsPurduePUR
Win prob:79%
11/21
@IllinoisILL
Win prob:54%
11/27
vsNebraskaNEB
Win prob:60%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

IowaRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.2%
99.0%
8-1
2.2%
81.2%
7-2
9.7%
20.7%
6-3
21.4%
0.4%
5-4
28.1%
0%
4-5
22.9%
0%
3-6
11.5%
0%
2-7
3.5%
0%
1-8
0.6%
0%
0-9
0.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Iowa CCG Opponents

if Iowa makes the CCG

Ohio StateOhio St
38.0%
OregonOregon
30.5%
IndianaIndiana
20.9%
Penn StatePenn St
5.9%
USCUSC
4.7%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

IowaThis Week's Impact

Game
IowaCCG OddsAway
IowaCCG OddsHome
San Jose StSJSU@USCUSC
4.1%
(+0.1%)		4.1%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

IowaLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Iowa CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%
Any 1 loss
82.5%
1.6%
N Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa St
97.4%
<0.1%
Northern Iowa
94.7%
<0.1%
Wisconsin
94.6%
<0.1%
Purdue
94.3%
<0.1%
Illinois
93.5%
0.1%
Minnesota
89.9%
<0.1%
Washington
86.1%
0.2%
Nebraska
84.5%
0.1%
Michigan
82.3%
0.3%
Northwestern
81.8%
<0.1%
Ohio St
75.0%
0.6%
Any 2 losses
25.9%
7.2%
IllinoisNorthern Iowa
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisPurdue
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
Northern IowaWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Northern IowaNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthern Iowa
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthern Iowa
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesota
94.7%
<0.1%
MichiganN Illinois
93.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthwestern
93.3%
<0.1%
N IllinoisWashington
90.9%
<0.1%
Northern IowaWashington
90.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StPurdue
90.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraska
84.6%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichigan
84.4%
<0.1%
MichiganNorthern Iowa
83.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa St
81.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StWashington
81.1%
<0.1%
MinnesotaN Illinois
80.0%
<0.1%
Northern IowaOhio St
76.3%
<0.1%
Northern IowaPurdue
75.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisOhio St
73.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StOhio St
69.5%
0.2%
IllinoisPurdue
66.7%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthern Iowa
62.5%
<0.1%
PurdueWisconsin
52.9%
<0.1%
NebraskaWisconsin
51.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNebraska
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMinnesota
46.2%
<0.1%
IllinoisNebraska
41.7%
<0.1%
MinnesotaWashington
41.7%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthwestern
38.6%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthwestern
37.8%
<0.1%
IllinoisWashington
37.8%
0.1%
PurdueWashington
37.8%
<0.1%
NorthwesternWisconsin
37.0%
<0.1%
WashingtonWisconsin
35.8%
<0.1%
MinnesotaWisconsin
34.8%
<0.1%
IllinoisWisconsin
34.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorthwestern
33.3%
<0.1%
MichiganMinnesota
32.9%
0.1%
NebraskaWashington
31.1%
0.1%
NorthwesternPurdue
30.0%
<0.1%
MichiganWisconsin
28.0%
0.1%
MichiganPurdue
27.5%
<0.1%
IllinoisMichigan
26.3%
0.3%
MichiganNorthwestern
23.6%
0.2%
Ohio StPurdue
23.1%
0.2%
NebraskaPurdue
22.7%
<0.1%
MinnesotaOhio St
22.3%
0.3%
MichiganNebraska
22.0%
0.2%
Ohio StWisconsin
21.6%
0.3%
IllinoisOhio St
21.0%
0.6%
NorthwesternWashington
19.8%
0.1%
MichiganWashington
19.6%
0.4%
MinnesotaPurdue
16.7%
<0.1%
NebraskaOhio St
16.3%
0.4%
NorthwesternOhio St
15.3%
0.3%
Ohio StWashington
13.6%
0.7%
MichiganOhio St
7.8%
1.3%
Any 3 losses
11.5%
5.6%
N IllinoisPurdueWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthern IowaPurdue
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthern IowaNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisN IllinoisWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StN IllinoisWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StNorthern Iowa
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaN IllinoisWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaNorthern Iowa
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisN IllinoisPurdue
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthern IowaPurdue
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StN IllinoisNebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StN Illinois
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorthern IowaWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StN IllinoisWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaN IllinoisPurdue
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisPurdue
85.7%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganNorthern Iowa
83.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisMinnesotaNorthern Iowa
83.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StPurdueWisconsin
83.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthern IowaWisconsin
75.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisWashingtonWisconsin
75.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaPurdue
71.4%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganN Illinois
71.4%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaNorthwestern
66.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StNorthwestern
66.7%
<0.1%
MichiganMinnesotaN Illinois
66.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorthern IowaWisconsin
66.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisMinnesotaN Illinois
66.7%
<0.1%
Northern IowaPurdueWashington
66.7%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaNorthern Iowa
66.7%
<0.1%
Iowa StN IllinoisOhio St
62.5%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthern IowaOhio St
61.9%
<0.1%
MichiganNorthern IowaNorthwestern
60.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthern IowaWashington
60.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaNebraska
58.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaN IllinoisWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorthern IowaOhio St
50.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaNorthwestern
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorthern IowaWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthern IowaNorthwestern
50.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthern IowaWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisN IllinoisWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaN IllinoisNebraska
50.0%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisNorthern Iowa
50.0%
<0.1%
Northern IowaNorthwesternWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StWashington
47.4%
<0.1%
MinnesotaN IllinoisOhio St
46.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StNebraska
45.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthwesternWisconsin
42.9%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StPurdue
42.9%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthwesternWashington
42.1%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthern IowaNorthwestern
40.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthern IowaWashington
40.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaWisconsin
37.5%
<0.1%
IllinoisMichiganN Illinois
37.5%
<0.1%
Iowa StWashingtonWisconsin
34.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthwesternPurdue
33.3%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNebraskaWashington
33.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StMinnesota
33.3%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorthwesternPurdue
33.3%
<0.1%
MichiganNorthern IowaPurdue
33.3%
<0.1%
MichiganNorthern IowaWisconsin
33.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorthern IowaNorthwestern
33.3%
<0.1%
Northern IowaWashingtonWisconsin
33.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisN IllinoisNebraska
33.3%
<0.1%
Northern IowaNorthwesternWashington
33.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StWisconsin
33.3%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNebraskaNorthwestern
33.3%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthern IowaPurdue
33.3%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNebraskaWisconsin
33.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaWashington
30.4%
<0.1%
Northern IowaOhio StPurdue
29.2%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaOhio St
28.7%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisWashington
28.6%
<0.1%
N IllinoisOhio StWisconsin
27.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StMichigan
26.9%
<0.1%
MichiganNorthern IowaWashington
26.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganNebraska
25.6%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthern IowaWashington
25.0%
<0.1%
MichiganNebraskaNorthern Iowa
25.0%
<0.1%
Northern IowaOhio StWisconsin
25.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorthern IowaPurdue
25.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorthern IowaOhio St
24.1%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganWisconsin
23.8%
<0.1%
IllinoisMichiganNorthern Iowa
23.8%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorthwesternOhio St
23.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaWisconsin
23.1%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganWashington
22.9%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisNorthwestern
22.2%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StOhio St
21.8%
0.1%
Iowa StMichiganNorthwestern
21.4%
<0.1%
IllinoisN IllinoisOhio St
20.8%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisNebraska
20.0%
<0.1%
MichiganMinnesotaNorthern Iowa
20.0%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisWisconsin
20.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StPurdueWashington
20.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisOhio StWashington
19.4%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganPurdue
19.2%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthern IowaOhio St
19.2%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganMinnesota
15.6%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaWashington
15.2%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthwesternOhio St
15.1%
0.1%
IllinoisPurdueWisconsin
15.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StOhio StWisconsin
14.3%
<0.1%
N IllinoisOhio StPurdue
14.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNebraskaNorthern Iowa
14.3%
<0.1%
Northern IowaNorthwesternOhio St
13.3%
<0.1%
Northern IowaOhio StWashington
13.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthern IowaOhio St
12.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StOhio StWashington
11.8%
0.2%
Iowa StNebraskaOhio St
9.1%
0.1%
MinnesotaNorthwesternPurdue
9.1%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganOhio St
9.1%
0.4%
MichiganNorthern IowaOhio St
8.6%
0.1%
Iowa StOhio StPurdue
8.3%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthwesternPurdue
8.3%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNebraskaOhio St
7.1%
<0.1%
NebraskaPurdueWisconsin
6.7%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthwesternWisconsin
5.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorthwesternWisconsin
5.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMinnesotaNorthwestern
3.5%
<0.1%
NebraskaPurdueWashington
3.5%
<0.1%
MichiganPurdueWashington
3.2%
<0.1%
NorthwesternWashingtonWisconsin
3.1%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOhio StPurdue
2.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisNebraskaWashington
2.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthwesternWashington
1.9%
<0.1%
IllinoisWashingtonWisconsin
1.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisMinnesotaWashington
1.3%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthwesternOhio St
1.3%
0.2%
MichiganWashingtonWisconsin
1.2%
0.2%
MinnesotaNebraskaOhio St
1.0%
0.2%
IllinoisMichiganWisconsin
0.9%
0.1%
IllinoisMichiganNorthwestern
0.8%
0.1%
IllinoisOhio StPurdue
0.8%
0.1%
IllinoisMichiganMinnesota
0.8%
0.1%
MichiganMinnesotaWashington
0.8%
0.1%
IllinoisNorthwesternOhio St
0.7%
0.3%
IllinoisMichiganNebraska
0.6%
0.2%
MichiganNorthwesternWashington
0.5%
0.2%
MinnesotaOhio StWashington
0.5%
0.4%
Any 4 losses
4.7%
1.7%
Iowa StNebraskaNorthern IowaWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StNorthern IowaWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StN IllinoisNorthwesternWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StN IllinoisNebraskaWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StNorthern IowaNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StN IllinoisNorthwesternWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaNorthern IowaNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNebraskaNorthern IowaWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthern IowaNorthwesternWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganN IllinoisNorthern Iowa
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMinnesotaN IllinoisNorthern Iowa
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StN IllinoisNebraskaPurdue
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaNorthern IowaWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorthern IowaOhio StPurdue
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisNorthern IowaPurdue
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisNorthern IowaNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisNorthern IowaWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNebraskaPurdueWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StNebraskaNorthern Iowa
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaN IllinoisPurdue
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisN IllinoisNorthern IowaWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaN IllinoisNorthern IowaPurdue
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthern IowaNorthwesternWashington
66.7%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganNorthern IowaNorthwestern
50.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StN IllinoisWashingtonWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StNorthern IowaWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StN IllinoisNorthwesternPurdue
50.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganMinnesotaNorthern Iowa
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StMinnesotaNorthern Iowa
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StMichiganN Illinois
40.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaNorthern IowaWashington
40.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganN IllinoisWashington
40.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthern IowaWashingtonWisconsin
33.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaNorthern IowaOhio St
33.3%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisNebraskaNorthern Iowa
33.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganNorthern IowaPurdue
33.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganNorthern IowaWashington
33.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganN IllinoisNorthwestern
33.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StN IllinoisNebraska
33.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StN IllinoisNorthwesternOhio St
27.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaN IllinoisNorthwestern
25.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StN IllinoisNebraskaWashington
25.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StN IllinoisOhio St
25.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMinnesotaNorthern IowaWisconsin
25.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganN IllinoisNebraska
25.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorthern IowaWashingtonWisconsin
25.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StN IllinoisNebraskaOhio St
25.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthern IowaOhio StWisconsin
22.2%
<0.1%
Iowa StN IllinoisOhio StWashington
20.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaNorthern IowaOhio St
20.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisN IllinoisNorthern IowaOhio St
20.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaNorthwesternWisconsin
20.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StNorthern IowaOhio St
17.6%
<0.1%
N IllinoisNorthern IowaOhio StWashington
16.7%
<0.1%
Iowa StNebraskaPurdueWashington
14.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganNebraskaNorthern Iowa
14.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthern IowaOhio StPurdue
14.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisN IllinoisWashingtonWisconsin
14.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StMichiganNorthern Iowa
12.5%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StNebraskaPurdue
12.5%
<0.1%
Northern IowaNorthwesternOhio StPurdue
12.5%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganN IllinoisOhio St
11.1%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaNebraskaNorthwestern
10.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganNorthern IowaOhio St
10.0%
<0.1%
MichiganMinnesotaNorthern IowaWashington
6.7%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthern IowaOhio StWisconsin
5.9%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthern IowaOhio StWashington
4.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StMinnesotaOhio StWisconsin
3.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StMichiganNorthwestern
2.9%
<0.1%
IllinoisNebraskaNorthern IowaOhio St
2.9%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganNorthwesternWashington
2.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StMichiganMinnesota
2.7%
<0.1%
Iowa StOhio StPurdueWashington
2.1%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StMichiganNebraska
2.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMichiganNebraskaWashington
1.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StNebraskaOhio St
1.5%
<0.1%
MichiganN IllinoisOhio StWashington
1.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisIowa StNorthwesternOhio St
1.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StNorthwesternOhio StWashington
1.0%
0.1%
IllinoisIowa StMichiganOhio St
1.0%
0.3%
Iowa StNebraskaOhio StWashington
0.8%
0.1%
Iowa StMichiganOhio StWisconsin
0.7%
0.1%
IllinoisIowa StOhio StWashington
0.6%
0.2%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com