Iowa

IowaHawkeyes

2-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.8%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Iowa's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?

Iowa has a 1.8% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Iowa's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

IowaSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsN IllinoisNIU
W40-0
29/12
vsIowa StISU
W16-13
39/19
vsNorthern IowaUNI
Win prob:90%
49/26
@MichiganMICH
Win prob:28%
510/03
vsOhio StOSU
Win prob:7%
610/09
@WashingtonWASH
Win prob:55%
810/24
@MinnesotaMINN
Win prob:77%
910/31
vsWisconsinWIS
Win prob:80%
1011/07
@NorthwesternNU
Win prob:66%
1111/14
vsPurduePUR
Win prob:86%
1211/21
@IllinoisILL
Win prob:60%
1311/27
vsNebraskaNEB
Win prob:42%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

IowaRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.1%
99.5%
8-1
1.8%
63.2%
7-2
9.9%
5.6%
6-3
23.5%
0.0%
5-4
30.1%
0%
4-5
22.2%
0%
3-6
9.7%
0%
2-7
2.4%
0%
1-8
0.3%
0%
0-9
0.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Iowa CCG Opponents

if Iowa makes the CCG

OSUOhio St
59.0%
IUIndiana
25.8%
PSUPenn St
7.3%
USCUSC
3.4%
OREOregon
2.8%
NEBNebraska
1.1%
MICHMichigan
0.6%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

IowaThis Week's Impact

Game
IowaCCG OddsAway Wins
IowaCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Sep 18
Portland StatePRST@OregonORE
1.7%
(-0.1%)		1.8%
(+0.0%)
Sat, Sep 19
AkronAKR@MinnesotaMINN
1.8%
(-0.0%)		1.8%
(+0.0%)
BuffaloBUF@Penn StPSU
1.6%
(-0.2%)		1.8%
(+0.0%)
KentKENT@Ohio StOSU
1.8%
(+0.0%)		1.8%
(+0.0%)
E MichiganEMU@WisconsinWIS
1.7%
(-0.1%)		1.8%
(+0.0%)
Southern IllinoisSIU@IllinoisILL
1.8%
(+0.1%)		1.8%
(-0.0%)
USCUSC@RutgersRUTG
1.8%
(-0.0%)		2.1%
(+0.3%)
UTEPUTEP@MichiganMICH
1.8%
(-0.0%)		1.8%
(+0.0%)
Northern IowaUNI@IowaIOWA
1.8%
(+0.0%)		1.8%
(+0.0%)
WKUWKU@IndianaIU
1.9%
(+0.1%)		1.8%
(+0.0%)
Eastern WashingtonEWU@WashingtonWASH
1.8%
(+0.0%)		1.8%
(+0.0%)
North DakotaUND@NebraskaNEB
1.8%
(-0.0%)		1.8%
(+0.0%)
ColoradoCOLO@NorthwesternNU
1.8%
(+0.0%)		1.8%
(-0.0%)
Michigan StMSU@Notre DameND
1.7%
(-0.1%)		1.8%
(+0.0%)
Virginia TechVT@MarylandMD
1.8%
(+0.0%)		1.8%
(-0.0%)
PurduePUR@UCLAUCLA
1.9%
(+0.1%)		1.8%
(-0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

IowaLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Iowa CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
99.6%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
63.3%
1.7%
Northern Iowa
98.9%
<0.1%
Illinois
88.6%
<0.1%
Wisconsin
82.9%
<0.1%
Minnesota
79.8%
<0.1%
Purdue
78.8%
<0.1%
Washington
77.7%
<0.1%
Nebraska
77.0%
0.1%
Northwestern
72.5%
<0.1%
Michigan
66.0%
0.2%
Ohio St
58.1%
1.1%
Any 2 losses
6.7%
9.0%
IllinoisNorthern Iowa
91.7%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthern Iowa
85.0%
<0.1%
Northern IowaWashington
82.3%
<0.1%
Northern IowaPurdue
79.0%
<0.1%
Northern IowaNorthwestern
76.6%
<0.1%
Northern IowaWisconsin
75.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthern Iowa
73.1%
<0.1%
MichiganNorthern Iowa
64.4%
<0.1%
Northern IowaOhio St
59.3%
0.1%
IllinoisMinnesota
28.6%
<0.1%
IllinoisPurdue
28.2%
<0.1%
MinnesotaPurdue
27.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaWisconsin
26.2%
<0.1%
IllinoisWisconsin
25.6%
<0.1%
PurdueWashington
25.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisWashington
24.4%
<0.1%
WashingtonWisconsin
23.4%
<0.1%
MinnesotaWashington
22.9%
<0.1%
IllinoisNebraska
18.5%
<0.1%
NebraskaWisconsin
17.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorthwestern
16.3%
<0.1%
NorthwesternPurdue
16.3%
<0.1%
NorthwesternWashington
15.7%
<0.1%
NorthwesternWisconsin
15.1%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNebraska
14.8%
<0.1%
NebraskaWashington
14.3%
<0.1%
MichiganPurdue
13.3%
<0.1%
NebraskaPurdue
12.4%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthwestern
12.4%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthwestern
12.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisMichigan
10.7%
0.1%
MichiganWisconsin
10.6%
<0.1%
MichiganMinnesota
10.4%
<0.1%
PurdueWisconsin
10.0%
<0.1%
MichiganNorthwestern
10.0%
0.1%
Ohio StWisconsin
9.1%
0.3%
IllinoisOhio St
8.7%
0.8%
MichiganNebraska
8.4%
0.3%
MinnesotaOhio St
7.7%
0.3%
MichiganWashington
6.6%
0.2%
Ohio StPurdue
6.3%
0.2%
Ohio StWashington
5.6%
0.9%
NorthwesternOhio St
4.9%
0.6%
NebraskaOhio St
4.2%
1.5%
MichiganOhio St
1.8%
2.9%
Any 3 losses
5.3%
1.0%
Northern IowaPurdueWisconsin
60.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorthern IowaWisconsin
33.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthern IowaNorthwestern
33.3%
<0.1%
Northern IowaPurdueWashington
28.6%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorthern IowaWashington
25.4%
<0.1%
IllinoisMinnesotaNorthern Iowa
25.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNebraskaNorthern Iowa
21.2%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthern IowaWisconsin
21.1%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthern IowaPurdue
20.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorthern IowaNorthwestern
18.9%
<0.1%
Northern IowaWashingtonWisconsin
18.8%
<0.1%
IllinoisNebraskaNorthern Iowa
18.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthern IowaWashington
15.8%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthern IowaNorthwestern
14.8%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorthern IowaPurdue
14.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisMichiganNorthern Iowa
14.2%
<0.1%
MichiganNorthern IowaWisconsin
14.1%
<0.1%
Northern IowaOhio StWisconsin
11.8%
<0.1%
MichiganNorthern IowaWashington
10.8%
<0.1%
MichiganNorthern IowaNorthwestern
8.6%
<0.1%
MichiganNebraskaNorthern Iowa
8.5%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorthern IowaOhio St
8.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthern IowaOhio St
7.9%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthern IowaWashington
7.3%
<0.1%
Northern IowaNorthwesternWashington
6.7%
<0.1%
Northern IowaOhio StPurdue
6.4%
<0.1%
Northern IowaNorthwesternOhio St
5.0%
<0.1%
Northern IowaOhio StWashington
4.8%
0.1%
MichiganNorthern IowaPurdue
4.5%
<0.1%
MichiganMinnesotaNorthern Iowa
4.5%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthern IowaOhio St
3.6%
0.2%
IllinoisNorthwesternPurdue
2.7%
<0.1%
MichiganNorthern IowaOhio St
1.7%
0.3%
MinnesotaNorthern IowaOhio StPurdue
1.8%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

IowaCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com