IllinoisFighting Illini
1-1 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Illinois's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Illinois has a <0.1% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Illinois's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/03 | W42-23 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L27-31 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:1% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:73% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:45% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:20% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:38% | |
| 10 | 11/06 | Win prob:26% | |
| 11 | 11/13 | Win prob:34% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:41% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:48% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 71.1% |
| 7-2 | 0.7% | 8.3% |
| 6-3 | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 12.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 24.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 29.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 20.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
66.3%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
85.7%
<0.1%
83.3%
<0.1%
71.4%
<0.1%
66.3%
<0.1%
37.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
7.4%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.7%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
5.5%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%9.9%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17