IllinoisFighting Illini
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Illinois's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Illinois has a 1.1% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Illinois's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/03 | Win prob:92% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:62% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:7% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:17% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:57% | ||
| 11/06 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 11/13 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:56% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.5% | 82.3% |
| 7-2 | 3.7% | 17.8% |
| 6-3 | 12.9% | 0.2% |
| 5-4 | 24.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 28.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 19.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 8.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.7% (-0.4%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
84.2%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
93.8%
<0.1%
88.9%
<0.1%
83.3%
<0.1%
83.3%
<0.1%
83.0%
0.1%
79.5%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
25.3%
2.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%78.1%
0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
0.1%30.2%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.9%
0.2%25.0%
<0.1%21.8%
<0.1%20.4%
0.1%19.2%
0.1%19.0%
0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.5%
0.7%6.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
12.5%
2.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.0%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.6%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.0%
0.5%6.0%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Any 4 losses
5.9%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2026-08-26