IllinoisFighting Illini

Q: What is Illinois's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?

Illinois has a <0.1% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Illinois's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

5-3 T5th (3-2) in B1G

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.1%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Illinois's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?

Illinois has a <0.1% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Illinois's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Illinois need to do to reach the Big Ten Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Illinois's Big Ten Championship Game odds at 10.2%.

What is the biggest game this week for Illinois's Big Ten Championship Game odds?

Illinois's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Nebraska would put its Big Ten Championship Game odds at 0.2%, while a loss would drop them to -.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
1	9/03	vsUABUAB	W42-23
2	9/12	vsDukeDUKE	L27-31
3	9/19	vsSouthern IllinoisSIU	W48-10
4	9/26	@Ohio StateOSU	L19-42
5	10/03	vsPurduePUR	L17-24
6	10/10	@Michigan StateMSU	W38-37
8	10/24	vsOregonORE	W21-10
9	10/31	@MarylandMD	W20-17
10	11/06	vsNebraskaNEB	Win prob:30%
11	11/13	@UCLAUCLA	Win prob:23%
12	11/21	vsIowaIOWA	Win prob:32%
13	11/28	@NorthwesternNU	Win prob:20%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-2	0.4%	10.2%
6-3	5.2%	0.0%
5-4	22.6%	0%
4-5	42.4%	0%
3-6	29.3%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

IndianaIU

60.0%

Ohio StateOSU

40.0%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6
	NebraskaNEB@IllinoisILL	0.0% (-0.1%)	0.2% (+0.1%)
Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7
	UCLAUCLA@MinnesotaMINN	0.0% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
	MarylandMD@PurduePUR	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
	OregonORE@Ohio StateOSU	0.1% (+0.1%)	0.0% (-0.0%)
	Penn StatePSU@WashingtonWASH	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)
	RutgersRUTG@WisconsinWIS	0.0% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
	IowaIOWA@NorthwesternNU	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)
	Michigan StateMSU@MichiganMICH	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)